Forecasting for dollars
Improved wind forecasts aim to bolster power grid efficiencies.
Though we may know wind is coming within a 24-hour period, what time, how strong it will be or how long it will last are often unknowns.
For those caught in sudden gales, the matter can be an inconvenience. For the renewable energy industry, a vague weather forecast can translate to lost dollars.
A recent $2.5 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to a coalition of organizations including CU-Boulder aims to boost wind forecast models, making wind predictions鈥攁nd energy production from turbines鈥攎ore reliable and efficient.
Advances could not only set up wind farms and power grid operators to be more successful, they also could lead to lower costs for consumers and strengthen nationwide efforts to transition to more low-carbon sources of electricity.
鈥淲e鈥檙e skilled at predicting that there will be significant increases or decreases in wind speed, but we have a lot of challenges anticipating the exact timing and magnitude,鈥� said Julie Lundquist, an assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and the CU-Boulder lead on the DOE project.
The grant is led by Vaisala, an international company based in Finland with offices in Louisville, Colorado, that specializes in environmental and industrial measurements.
Other partners include the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, the Louisville office of Lockheed Martin, Texas Tech University, the University of Notre Dame and the environmental consulting firm Sharply Focused, of Portland, Oregon.
The research ahead is made even more formidable by the fact that the large group of scientists and technicians involved are zeroing in on some of the most complex terrain in which to forecast wind, the Columbia River Gorge region of Washington and Oregon, where thousands of wind turbines are already deployed.
鈥淲eather patterns in and around mountains, canyons, gorges and coastlines are difficult to predict,鈥� said Lundquist. 鈥淪o if we can fix the models and improve their performance in challenging areas like the Columbia River Gorge, then we should also improve their performance in easier locations.鈥�
Armed with hefty super-computing power, the researchers will tackle the complex terrain by using a high-resolution technique to look at weather patterns there. Using advanced meteorological equipment, they鈥檒l be able to examine what鈥檚 happening in a small area, such as a half-mile section as opposed to a 13-mile section.
Additionally, the researchers will run models more rapidly鈥攅very hour鈥攖o compare projected and actual atmospheric conditions, making corrections to data along the way for better forecasting accuracy.
CU-Boulder graduate students are participating in the research, and project measurements will also be incorporated into Lundquist鈥檚 undergraduate class, Wind Energy Meteorology.
Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and CU-Boulder鈥檚 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) also are participating in the research.
鈥淚n order to address challenges with the wind, we also have to address other aspects of the weather,鈥� said Lundquist. 鈥淲e hope to improve representations of other physics that are applicable to other industries such as transportation and recreation.鈥�
Advances
Flexible phones
With all that advanced electronic devices can do鈥攃onnect people in opposite hemispheres, count one鈥檚 every step, deliver information and entertainment, and more鈥攊t鈥檚 no wonder the temperature of their components could rise. Heat is a limiting factor, affecting thickness and flexibility, in the design of workhorse electronics like wearable technology, smartphones, tablets and computers. But luckily, the technology involving thermal management is getting sleeker. Y.C. Lee and Ronggui Yang, both professors of mechanical engineering and co-founders of Kelvin Thermal Technologies, worked with the CU Technology Transfer Office at the beginning of 2015 to license a cutting-edge heat mitigation system. The system could enable the development of ultra-thin and flexible smartphones, wearable electronics and other commercial and military items. The new approach鈥攚hich has the potential to enhance product reliability and efficiency鈥攔eplaces conventional materials like graphite, copper and aluminum.
Industry safety training
As part of a five-year $2 million grant from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Stefanie Johnson at CU-Boulder鈥檚 Leeds School of Business is researching the impact of leadership training on safety outcomes across construction job sites. The goal is to use the data to enhance the Occupational Safety and Health Administration鈥檚 30-hour construction training course. The existing course is widely used across the United States with over 700,000 attendees annually, but lacks a module on leadership. This is problematic in that leadership has been shown to be a key driver of safety outcomes in construction.