By the numbers
From a YouGov and CU Boulder survey of Coloradans in October:
The candidates
Presidential election, support among likely voters:
Kamala Harris (D): 55%
Donald Trump: (R): 41%
Other: 4%
U.S. House of Representatives elections, support among likely voters:
The Republican candidate: 43%
The Democratic candidate: 55%
Other: 2%
Ballot measures
Amendment J: Repealing language in the state constitution defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman
Favor: 54%
Oppose: 37%
Not sure: 9%
Amendment 79: Creating a constitutional right to abortion in Colorado
Favor: 58%
Oppose: 32%
Not sure: 10%
Proposition 127: Prohibiting the hunting of lynx, bobcats and mountain lions
Favor: 57%
Oppose: 30%
Not sure: 13%
Proposition 131: Establishing a top-four ranked-choice voting process
Favor: 45%
Oppose: 33%Ěý
Not sure: 22%
With Election Day 2024 right around the corner, a new survey finds that 72% of Coloradans believe that elections in the state will be “conducted fairly and accurately”—although that confidence in the voting process dips for national elections.
The findings come from the ninth annual Colorado Political Climate Survey, an effort to gauge the pulse of state voters. This year, the survey team polled 800 Coloradans on a range of issues—from how they may vote on a suite of ballot measures to their views on abortion, the economy, immigration and more. Ěý
“This is our ninth annual study of Colorado—we intend for these studies to help benchmark opinions and trends in the state,” said Anand Edward Sokhey, a co-author of the survey and professor in the Department of Political Science.
The survey was led by the American Politics Research Lab at CUĚýBoulder and carried out by the polling firm YouGov. Respondents completed the 10-to-12 minute survey online in the second half of October. For questions addressing the presidential race and state ballot measures, the team used a smaller number of respondents, or about 750 people, and weighted results to reflect likely voters in the state. The margin of error is about plus or minus 4.5%. For other opinion items, the team used all 800 respondents and weighted results to be representative of adult Coloradans. The margin of error is about plus or minus 4.4%.
At the top of the ticket, Kamala Harris led Donald Trump among likely Colorado voters by 55% to 41%. The results also revealed a considerable gender divide: Among likely voters, women supported Harris 59% by 37%, while men leaned towardĚýHarris by 50% to 45%.
Election under the microscope
According to the survey, Coloradans hold mixed views on the nation’s electoral process. For the presidential election, 66% of the Colorado public agreed with the statement: “If my preferred candidate does not win, I will view the winner as legitimate.” Fourteen percent disagreed, and 20% weren’t sure. Those responses dovetailed with partisanship, with 83% of Democrats agreeingĚýbut only 52% of Republicans and 59% of Independents agreeing.Ěý
In a troubling sign, 66% of respondents reported that they were worried that violence could break out on or after Election Day. But less than 40% of people were concerned that such violence could emerge in Colorado.
This year, the economy is top of mind for Coloradans from all political parties—a finding that has been consistent across recent iterations of the Colorado Political Climate Survey. Thirty-three percent of respondents ranked economic conditions in the state as “excellent” or “good,” while 28% labeled it “average” and 39% “fair” or “poor.” Those views also aligned with party affiliation, with 52% of Democrats adopting a positive outlook on the economy, but only 16% of Republicans and 24% of Independents feeling the same.
Majorities from all parties reported that they were “very concerned” or “concerned” about the cost of living in Colorado.
Ballot measures
The survey also dove into a host of hot-button ballot measures in the state.
Likely voters favored Amendment 79, which would make abortion a constitutional right—with 58% in favor, 32% opposed and 10% unsure. Because this measure would amend Colorado’s constitution, it requires 55% of the vote to pass.Ěý
Ballot measures removing language from the constitution, in contrast, require a simple majority to pass. They include Amendment J, which would repeal language in the state constitution defining marriage as the union between one man and one woman. (Same-sex marriage is already legal in Colorado due to federal and state rulings declaring bans unconstitutional). Survey respondents favored Amendment J by 54% to 37%, with 9% undecided.
Coloradans also seem to be developing a little fatigue with all those bubbles they need to fill out: A majority of survey respondents felt that there are too many questions on the state’s ballot. Ěý Ěý
“We ask a lot of voters in some years, and this year was especially burdensome—many people’s ballots were multiple pages, front and back, which requires considerable time and effort,” Sokhey said.Ěý
