麻豆淫院

As Russian forces continue to invade Ukraine, more questions are being raised about the reason behind the invasion, what will happen next and what this could mean for the future of Europe.

CU Boulder experts in Russia and Ukraine held a roundtable discussion Feb. 28, and shared insights into what has led to the crisis, how citizens of both countries are reacting, what effect economic sanctions could have on both Russia and the West and how Americans can help from afar.

Below are the five key takeaways from professors Erin Hutchinson (history), John O鈥橪oughlin (geography), Sarah Wilson Sokhey (political science) and David Bearce (political science).

Putin鈥檚 motives are unclear, but it鈥檚 unlikely he鈥檒l back down

Russia鈥檚 decision to invade Ukraine befuddled Russia experts because it didn鈥檛 make strategic sense, Hutchinson said.

鈥淓ven Russia-based Russia experts were confused because it doesn鈥檛 seem like a good strategic decision,鈥� she said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 understand what is going on in Putin鈥檚 head right now.鈥�

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made many claims justifying the invasion: that Ukraine was committing genocide against Russians; that Ukraine is not an independent nation but rather a part of Russia; that the invasion was an 鈥渁ct of self-defense鈥� against the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

鈥淧utin is really reviving these old Imperial myths that there鈥檚 no such thing as a Ukrainian nation and it鈥檚 all just one big Russian nation,鈥� Hutchinson said. 听

What does seem to be the case is that Russians are ramping up attacks against civilians鈥攖hey鈥檙e moving toward a strategy like . It does not appear that Putin has any intention of backing down.

The unintended outcome: Europe, Ukraine comes together

The invasion has also had an unintended effect: Instead of creating divisions within Ukraine and among European countries, people and nations have actually come together, the panelists said.

O鈥橪oughlin pointed out that the Russian government believed Ukraine would easily submit to a Russian invasion, noting the Ukrainian people have faced significant economic hardship鈥攁 recent survey showed 44% of Ukrainians could not afford their utility bills. It鈥檚 clear Putin didn鈥檛 expect a large Ukrainian resistance.

鈥淸Putin鈥檚] long-term strategy is clearly not going to work given the opposition in Ukraine and the outside support,鈥� O鈥橪oughlin said.

Rather than weakening NATO as Putin may have intended, the invasion could wind up giving that alliance new relevancy.

鈥淚t鈥檚 really hard to see, without NATO disbanding, how Putin would not have used [NATO] as some sort of Western Boogeyman that had to be defeated,鈥� Sohkey said.

鈥淲hat Putin may have accomplished very unintentionally is unifying Europe and getting more European countries into NATO,鈥� she said. Six European Union nations鈥擜ustria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta and Sweden鈥攁re not NATO members.

Most Russians didn鈥檛 want this to happen

In December 2021, reliable survey data out of Russia showed only 8% of Russians thought the country should send military forces to fight the Ukrainian government, and only 6% thought Russia should approach the West as an enemy. Even so, 75% still believed NATO was a risk to Russia.

鈥淭he data shows Russians didn鈥檛 think the West should be viewed as an enemy, but they did see some basis to the foreign policy that Putin was likely pursuing,鈥� Sohkey said.

Since the invasion began, protests have occurred around Russia. Sohkey said the Russian government is clearly worried about protests since it has deployed riot police to break up those events.

鈥淭he most recent estimates I鈥檝e seen is that maybe closer to 6,000 people have been arrested in protest and at least 51 cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, have had anti-war protests,鈥� Sohkey said.

Additionally, the protests now are less about Soviet legacy and more about loss of life in Ukraine, and that Russia is cut off from the world as a result of the recent economic sanctions.

Long-term effects of sanctions are still unclear

The West has imposed three major economic sanctions against Russia: The first froze assets by Russian elites held in Western banks; the second excluded Russia from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a messaging system that connects thousands of financial institutions across the globe; the third imposed restrictions upon the Russian Central Bank, effectively financially cutting off Russia from the United States.

鈥淪WIFT has sometimes been called the 鈥榥uclear option,鈥欌�� Bearce said, noting the move also significantly impacts everyday Russians because it affects almost all financial transactions made in the country. 鈥淭he exclusion from the SWIFT network is going to have potentially very large effects on Russian society.鈥�

Bearce added, however, that research shows sanctions generally aren鈥檛 effective, particularly because sanctions also harm the sanctioning country (which is why the United States has seen oil prices skyrocket).

But when coupled with other policies, research shows sanctions can be effective. Bearce said an example of this could be if the West heavily arms the Ukrainian opposition, which would draw out the war and further hinder the Russian economy.

鈥淚f sanctions are going to be effective, this is a really big deal. It鈥檚 not just about getting Russia out of Ukraine听but also about implications for the Russian State.鈥�

What can Americans do?

Sitting an ocean away can make Americans feel helpless in the war against Ukraine. Panelists offered tips on how the CU Boulder community and the United States at large can help:

• Distinguish between Putin and the Russians: Do not take this out on the Russian people, many of whom do not agree with the war.
• Donate to help refugees in the region: Places like Moldova are not rich countries and are receiving an influx of refugees. As of March 1, the U.N. has estimated more than 600,000 have fled Ukraine.
• Be willing to pay higher gas prices: Sanctions are not going to hurt Russia unless they hurt at home.
• Call your local representatives and let them know how much this matters to you.