Drought ravaged southern Colorado and the southwestern United States could see some early relief if the summer monsoon season begins earlier than normal, according to CU-Boulder and NOAA scientist Klaus Wolter.
"There is a hint that the monsoon might come early this year in the Four Corners region," said Wolter. "If you look further ahead into the future, the summer monsoon looks near normal for much of Colorado with maybe a hint of being wetter than normal on the Eastern Plains."
Wolter is an atmospheric scientist with the Climate Diagnostics Center, a joint research center of the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and NOAA, the national Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The summer monsoon typically begins in Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado in early to mid-July and runs through mid-August to early September. Monsoon weather also can extend further north to Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.
Rainfall amounts during a typical monsoon can range from brief showers to heavy rains of several inches that cause localized flooding, Wolter said. Areas such as the San Juan Mountains and the Southern Front Range can receive close to 10 inches of moisture during the summer, explained Wolter, while in New Mexico monsoon storms supply most of that state's precipitation for the year.
Along with an early monsoon in the Southwest, the outlook for June is comparatively dry for northeast Colorado, with above-average temperatures for most of Colorado, said Wolter. One concern, Wolter said, is that a hot and dry June could dramatically increase the fire danger along the Front Range.
"I am a bit worried about a hot and dry June, especially the eastern-half and the Front Range of Colorado," said Wolter. "With all the spring moisture there is going to be a lot of fresh undergrowth and if June turns out to be hot and dry, the fire danger might really go up when the undergrowth dries out, especially toward the end of the month."
Beyond June, Wolter said Colorado can expect normal precipitation, while the high plains east of the southern and central Rocky Mountains has a good chance of a wetter than normal summer.
The summer precipitation model also shows a chance for a wetter than normal summer in northwestern Utah, southern Wyoming and western Nebraska, said Wolter.
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