On the national, state, and even local levels, Colorado has been home to several highly contested elections that have had a ripple effect throughout the nation's political climate. The 2022 Midterm Election, for example, saw an intense battle between Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert and Democratic challenger Adam Frisch for representation of Colorado's 3rd Congressional District. Although Boebert retained her status as House Representative, the highly contested election came down to less than 1,000 votes (Verlee 2022). As reported by FiveThirtyEight projections (鈥�2022 House Forecast鈥� 2022), there was little to no expectation that Frisch would garner as much support as he did, and especially not almost win the district (Luning 2022). This one example among many indicates that Colorado's citizenry is truly passionate about elections. Capturing the voices of Coloradoans is crucial in forecasting election results and any potential upsets that could affect politics on the national level, which is important heading into what is likely to become a highly contested 2024 general election.
Those important voices are exactly what the American Politics Research Lab (APRL) at the University of Colorado Boulder is measuring with their annual Colorado Political Climate (CPC) Survey and report (Sokhey and Mader 2024). As CU Ph.D. candidate and CPC Survey Report co-author Madeline Mader writes, "The CPC measures Coloradans' attitudes on a variety of state and national issues, and it is one of the few resources for measuring public opinion consistently over time in the entire state of Colorado." By measuring the voices of Coloradoans on numerous relevant鈥攁nd often controversial鈥攖opics, such as "political leaders and institutions, electoral fairness, economic conditions, social policies, and Colorado state ballot initiatives" and then reporting the results in an easily digestible manner via the CPC, the APRL provides an invaluable resource for both casual observers and scholars alike. This article aims to highlight the methodology of the CPC and several key insights gained from the survey that could affect the 2024 general election.
The results of the CPC survey were gained from an 800 person survey conducted by YouGov, one of the largest and most trusted polling firms in the United States today (Morris 2024). ~
As mentioned earlier, the CPC survey organized its survey results into relevant categories, several of which are connected to the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The first primary section asks the respondents who they would vote for if the presidential election were held at that moment. The survey shows an expected, yet close result, as Joe Biden maintains a 7% lead over Donald Trump (47-40), with the remainder of the respondents selecting the "Other" option. Biden remains in front of Trump with support from the woman-identifying demographic, as 49% of women say they will vote for Biden compared to Trump's 36%. Biden also maintains slightly stronger support from his partisan base, as 88% of Democrat voters support Biden compared to 85% supporting Donald Trump. However, there is a larger percentage of remaining Democrats that would plan on voting for Trump in 2024 when compared to Republicans who would vote for Biden (10-5), which would indicate that there is slightly more polarization in support for Trump in 2024. Regarding independent voters, Biden has a significant lead over Donald Trump. This finding is especially important heading into the 2024 election, as Biden has a much higher likelihood of securing Colorado by maintaining the independent vote. However, there is still enough support from the Republican base, which could pose a legitimate challenge to the Democrats in 2024.
When looking at a generic ballot that consists of the choices of "Democratic Candidate," "Republican Candidate," and "Other" for a hypothetical U.S. House of Representatives election in respondents' districts, 49% of Coloradans would vote for the Democratic candidate compared to 42% who would vote for the Republican candidate, which is similar to the hypothetical 2024 election. However, when looking at the partisan split on the generic ballot, there is much more polarization in the Democratic party for a general House Representative than in President Biden. 94% of Democratic respondents would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district compared to Biden's 88%. While a small change likely will not sway the election either way, it is still worth noting that Biden is not as popular with his voter base when compared to a hypothetical candidate. On the Republican side, the rate of support for the hypothetical House Representative was almost identical to partisan support for Trump, as there were slightly fewer responses for the "Other" option and slightly more for the Republican option. The rate of Independent support for the Democratic, Republican, or "Other" option also remained almost identical, with support for the Republican candidate at 10% behind the Democratic candidates at 49%. These results indicate how partisan divides are still heavily embedded in Colorado's political culture, as Colorado is not an exception to the growing feelings of political polarization felt by voters spreading across the U.S. today (Kleinfeld 2023). The results also show how Independents may be the key to safely securing the victory for the Democrats in the 2024 general election or being the deciding factor in swaying votes toward the Republican candidates.
The survey shifted to Coloradoan approval ratings for key political figures and institutions. In particular, they asked respondents how they approved of how Biden was handling his role as President. The CPC reports that Biden has a 42% approval rating in Colorado, with 50% of respondents stating that they disapprove of Biden's handling of his job as President. These results, while not unexpected considering many of the domestic and international problems currently facing the U.S., indicate that Biden is not gaining much momentum heading into the election season. Coloradoans, specifically, are feeling the brunt of these domestic economic issues. Over 75% of respondents indicated that they were either concerned or very concerned about the cost of living in Colorado. Only 23% stated that U.S. economic conditions were excellent or good, while the remaining 77% stated that conditions were average, fair, or poor. These issues measured by the CPC had a fairly bipartisan response, indicating that Republicans are not the only ones unhappy with the economic issues at both the state and national levels. However, his 42% approval rating demonstrates the relatively high support of President Biden in Colorado, as Biden had a national approval rating of 37% as of February 2024 (Reuters 2024). Biden's higher approval rating in Colorado when compared to the national average, demonstrates how Colorado will most likely remain a Democratic stronghold in the upcoming 2024 election, barring any major surges in Trump's popularity.
The CPC then asked respondents about their trust levels in the 2024 election. To preface, when the CPC asked the respondents how often they would trust the federal government to act in the public's best interest, 49% selected "Rarely" or "Never." Democratic respondents were more likely to select "Most of the Time" or "About Half the Time" compared to Republican respondents, but these results were similar across partisan lines. On the national level, 52% of respondents agreed that national elections would be conducted fairly, while 32% disagreed and 16% were unsure. Republican respondents were fairly split between their trust in national elections; 41% of Republicans agreed that the elections would be conducted fairly, while 44% disagreed with that sentiment. Democrats were much more likely to agree with the initial claim, as 75% of Democratic respondents agreed, compared to 16% who disagreed. Free and fair elections are one of the pillars of democracy (鈥淔ree and Fair Elections,鈥� n.d.), so it may be alarming to citizens and political scientists alike that democratic institutions like elections are being questioned on their authenticity, whether or not claims of corruption are founded in fact. Furthermore, 59% of respondents agreed that all citizens could vote if they desired, and 51% agreed that the elections would reflect the will of the American populace. Heightened levels of distrust in government will pose a challenge to both candidates, with an especially difficult effect on the incumbent since Biden is the representative of the less trustworthy U.S. government in the eyes of many citizens.
听听听听听听听听听听听 Overall, the Colorado Political Climate Survey offers invaluable information on the attitudes of Coloradoans concerning several relevant issues and topics facing the state and the country as a whole. The annually conducted survey remains an essential tool not just for gauging opinions for the purpose of predicting elections, but also simply for anyone interested in how Coloradoans feel. The work that the American Politics Research Lab at CU conducts, especially the Colorado Political Climate Survey, is crucial in providing information about domestic policy and the opinions of the people that everyone can interpret and use for their own purposes.聽
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Works Cited
鈥�2022 House Forecast.鈥� 2022. FiveThirtyEight. November 8, 2022. .
鈥淔ree and Fair Elections.鈥� n.d. Principles of Democracy. U.S. Department of State. .
Kenney, Andrew. 2023. 鈥淲hat the 10-Year Colorado Property Tax Proposal Would Mean for You.鈥� Colorado Public Radio. May 4, 2023. .
Kleinfeld, Rachel. 2023. 鈥淧olarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says.鈥� Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. September 5, 2023. .
Luning, Ernest. 2022. 鈥淟auren Boebert in Statistical Dead Heat with Challenger Adam Frisch, Dem鈥檚 Internal Polling Shows.鈥� Colorado Politics. October 5, 2022. .
Morris, G. Elliot. 2024. 鈥淲hat Are the Best Pollsters in America?鈥� ABC News. January 25, 2024. .
Reuters. 2024. 鈥淏iden Approval Polling Tracker.鈥� Reuters, February 28, 2024. .
Sokhey, Anand, and Madeline Mader. 2024. 鈥淐olorado Political Climate Survey 2023 Report.鈥� American Politics Research Lab. /lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/202....
Verlee, Megan. 2022. 鈥淟auren Boebert-Adam Frisch Results: Final Votes Are Being Tallied in Colorado District 3. Here鈥檚 What Comes Next.鈥� Colorado Public Radio. November 17, 2022. .