ANALYSIS
Slowly but mostly steadily dropping unemployment rates are raising hopes for Democrats in Colorado and the nation that the recovering economy will help them win congressional seats in the 2014 midterm elections. That includes Colorado District 6, which may be the nation’s most hotly contested House race.
Scientific models lend support to a popular notion: Whenever the number of job seekers goes down – as is currently the overall case despite a slightĚýuptick in February’s national numbers from 6.6 to 6.7 percentĚý– the sitting president’s party will benefit from this economic sigh of relief in the next election.
Yet a CU News Corps analysis of Colorado’s unemployment rates and corresponding congressional election results over the last 20 years raises serious doubts about the Democratic premise for success this fall.
On the surface, thatĚýassumption seems more true since the recession in 2008 thanĚý, whenĚýdifferent issues intermittently surpassed the economy as Americans’ greatest concerns (see graphic):
- From 1994 to 1998, Americans were most worried about crimes and violence
- In 2000, education concerns briefly took the top spot
- In 2002, in the aftermath of 9/11, terrorism polled as residents’ greatest concern
- In 2004 and 2006, fear of war tracked highest
- From 2008 to 2012, the No. 1 concerns then switched to unemployment and the economy in general
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AĚýshowed that 23 percent of Americans still rate unemployment as the “most important” issue facing the country, and 20 percent said it was the “economy in general.” That compares to 19 percent citing a dissatisfaction with government and 15 percent mentioning health care.
And when asked what the most important issue in the state’s race for the governor’s mansion will be, 20 percent of Coloradanseither “jobs” or “the economy.”
According to the data CU News Corps reviewed, there is no proof that unemployment and its rate changes predict success or failure in elections in Colorado.
Though voters in all of the state’s seven congressional districts decide whom they will send to the House of Representatives this fall, three races at most – districts 3, 6 and 7 – are considered competitive. The latter, District 7, was created only after the 2000 U.S. Census.
Districts 1 and 2 are expected to again safely vote Democratic, while districts 4 and 5 are considered Republican strongholds, even after the announcement that Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Yuma) will challenge Mark Udall for the U.S. Senate and not retain his House seat from District 4. Changes in unemployment rates are unlikely to affect the overall election outcome in any of those four districts.
Things are very different in District 6, though.ĚýPolitico’sĚýRebecca Elliott called the race between Rep. Mike Coffman and his Democratic contender Andrew RomanoffĚý
America’s No. 1 problem
So what role will unemployment rates play in the election outcomes in the three districts in question?
The CU News Corps analysis of numbers obtained from theĚýand theĚýĚýquestions the decisive role of unemployment.
Throughout every congressional district in Colorado, unemployment rates peaked twice, once in the early 2000s, and once in the aftermath of the 2008 recession. And as George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012 were able to win second terms in the White House in the face of negative employment numbers, the changing unemployment rates also didn’t consistently affect who went on to win Colorado’s competitive Congressional seats in those years (see slideshow).
Jeffrey Browne
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Instead, the data illustrate that a variety of factors determines each election’s outcome rather than one sole, extracted factor. Among those indicators are
- Voter turnout
- Incumbency advantages
- Current pressing national issues (such as terrorism in 2002)
- Each district’s demographic features and
- Unemployment and the state of the economy.
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According to Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, District 6 went from relatively safe Republican to too close to call for two reasons, neither having to do with economic trends. First, the 2012 Obama campaign’s push for the Hispanic vote helped Democrat Joe Miklosi push Republican Coffman. And second, routine redistricting after the 2010 U.S. Census narrowed the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans in that district.
Seth Masket, a political science professor at the University of Denver,Ěýthat supports the conclusions of the CU News Corps analysis.
Masket found no correlation between either the unemployment rate or its change and a potential seat loss for parties.
But the poll data support experts like economics Nobel laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz, who believe in a strong interdependence between the number of jobless and the sitting president’s party’s fate, and even consider it the decisive factor in any outcome.
In hisĚýThe New York TimesĚýbestsellerĚýStiglitz wrote: “Standard models in political science show that especially the level of unemployment and its rate of change are the most important determinants of presidential and congressional outcomes.”
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6.2 percent of Coloradans were still without a job in December 2013 (see graphic). Nationwide, the number was at 6.7 percent at the turn of the year. Both state and national rates were lower than in the preceding month and significantly dropped from November 2012, when Barack Obama won a second term in the White House despite a still shaky economy.
Who profits from economic upturn?
In hisĚý, the president laid out the Democratic policy argument once more.
“The cold, hard fact is that even in the midst of recovery, too many Americans are working more than ever just to get by – let alone get ahead. And too many still aren’t working at all.”
Does he, does his party, have it all wrong, to lay the electoral fate in the hands of a jittery economy?
Yes and no.
Disunity prevails among experts, analysts and candidates from the political and economic spectrum. They can’t agree on the most important of the variety of factors that will influence the midterm elections.
“Since the first [economic] stimulus package in 2009, most voters think that neither party has been doing particularly well on economic issues,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based political analyst.
Leslie Oliver, communication director for Rep. Ed Perlmutter, who is running for his fifth consecutive term in Colorado’s 7th district (see map), on the other side agrees with Stiglitz.
“The most important issue facing Colorado in general continues to be economic growth,” Oliver wrote in an email. “Throughout the election, you will get to hear Democratic and Republican ideas for how to keep the economy growing, bringing down the unemployment rate and providing the educational opportunities to equip our kids for 21stĚýcentury jobs.”
Perlmutter’s Republican adversary this fall, Don Ytterberg, doesn’t believe that the recovering job market will benefit Democrats.
“Unemployed people don’t acknowledge the statistic,” he said. “People acknowledge that they are without a job.”
He also called the numeric unemployment rate “virtually meaningless.”
“More people are leaving the job market. That’s what is driving the rate down,” Ytterberg said.
Jeffrey Zax is an economics professor at the University of Colorado Boulder. While he suspects unemployment rates “both in the state and the nation to keep improving,” he also agrees with Ytterberg.
“In the recent recovery, it appears that people are leaving the labor force,” Zax said, noting another trend that artificially lowers unemployment rates. “We have seen that in times of recession, people invest more in education. It therefore takes them longer to enter the job market.”
Republicans rely on Obamacare
Kenneth Bickers puts another variable into the equation. The CU political science professor thinks the Affordable Care Act – Obamacare – will likely transfer all the way into the midterm elections this fall.
“Unemployment and jobs are always very important,” he said. “But we don’t always have this other 900-pound gorilla in the room, which is the health care measure.”
Floyd Ciruli expects that this year, maybe even more than usual, the state’s midterm elections will be a referendum on the presidency. Obama’s approval ratings continue to plummet: In 2013, on averageĚýonly 42.3 percent of Coloradans thought the presidentĚýwas doing a good job,Ěýa rate considerably lower than the nation’s 46.5 percent average,Ěý.
“The real issue is: Will Obama and Washington hurt state Democrats?” Ciruli asked.
Just recently,Ěýcaused Democrats more headaches. According to the CBO, because of new health care subsidies, the Affordable Care Act might push up to 2.5 million people out of their full-time jobs by 2024.
Bickers, who co-authoredĚýbased on unemployment rates and income changes, said two major factors affect the impact of unemployment rates: “It is whether people feel that the economy is improving or not, and it’s also who [the voters] credit or blame for that.”
Click on the map to learn more about the incumbents in Colorado’s seven congressional districts.
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